[The following was copied and pasted from GPT-4 after I fed it a transcript of a 3 minute ramble I had recorded while walking just now and asked it to turn it into a 2000 word blog in the style of Morgan Housel]
[[I'm not terribly happy with how this turned out, too chopped up, think my custom instructions are messing it up]]
Goodhart's Law for Correlation and Causation: A Journey into Human Misunderstanding
I. Introduction - The Mystery of Measures
The world is a strange place, filled with connections and coincidences. Sometimes we link things together that shouldn't be linked, and that's where the madness begins. Today, we'll take an exploratory journey into human logic and its funny quirks, mainly focusing on Goodhart's Law, correlation, causation, and our knack for getting things spectacularly mixed up.
A. The Charm of Goodhart's Law
Imagine a world where everything we measure becomes our goal. It sounds appealing but leads to disaster, like chasing a rainbow only to find there's no pot of gold. Goodhart's Law says that when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure. It's one of those ideas that make you stop and think.
B. The Quirkiness of Correlation vs. Causation
But there's another, equally fascinating concept that dances around human misunderstanding like a mischievous sprite: the confusion between correlation and causation. Just because two things happen together doesn't mean one is causing the other. Let's dig into this more.
II. The Weird World of Correlation and Causation - A Love Story Gone Wrong
A. Correlation vs. Causation: A Definition
In simple terms, correlation means two things move together; causation means one thing makes the other happen. Sounds simple, right? But the human mind loves to jump to conclusions, and that's where things get tangled.
B. Historical Confusions
Throughout history, people have confused correlation with causation, leading to some funny and sometimes tragic mistakes. Let's look at some examples.
III. The Illusion of Correlation - or Why Ice Cream Doesn't Cause Sunburn
A. Ice Cream and Hot Weather: A Delicious Mistake
On hot days, ice cream sales go up. So do sunburns. Does that mean ice cream causes sunburns? Of course not! But it's a classic example of how our minds can link things together in odd ways.
B. Waking Up Early and Success: A Tricky Connection
Here's another one: successful people wake up early. But does waking up early cause success? It's a complex issue, and we'll take a thorough look at why this seemingly obvious connection might not be so clear after all.
IV. Connecting with Goodhart's Law - A Weird Cousins' Reunion
Goodhart's Law and our correlation-causation mix-up might seem like separate issues, but they're like distant cousins, sharing some genetic material.
A. Goodhart's Law Revisited
Let's revisit Goodhart's Law and see how it plays with our main theme. When you target a measure, you distort it. When you target a correlation, thinking it's a cause, you're in for a surprise.
B. The Twisted Logic
This is where things get twisted. People target things thinking they're causes when they're merely correlations. Let's dive deeper into this rabbit hole and see where it leads us.
V. Real-world Applications - or How to Not Mess Up Your Life
A. The CEO Morning Mistake
Think waking up early will make you a CEO? Think again! We'll dissect this myth and understand why it's more complex than it seems.
B. The Diet Trap
Ever tried a celebrity diet? Did it work? We'll explore why copying someone else's diet might not give you the results you desire.
C. The Mystery of Happiness
Can you copy happiness? If happy people do something, does that mean you'll be happy if you do it too? We'll dive into this profound question and try to unravel the mystery.
VI. The Bigger Picture - A View from Thought Mountain
Understanding these ideas gives us a powerful new way to see the world. It's like opening a new door to a room filled with insights and wisdom.
A. Life Lessons
What can we learn from all this? We'll reflect on how these concepts can guide us in our daily lives, careers, and relationships.
B. Future Implications
What might the future hold if we all understood these ideas better? We'll dream a little and look at the potential benefits to society and ourselves.
VII. Conclusion - A Thoughtful Goodbye
Life is a complicated, tangled web of connections and misunderstandings. But we've taken a fascinating journey today, unraveling some of those knots and seeing things a bit more clearly.
Remember, just because two things happen together doesn't mean one is causing the other. It's like a cosmic joke played on the human mind. But now we're in on the secret, and we can laugh along.
Let's take this wisdom into our lives, question what we think we know, and be more thoughtful and intelligent in our choices. The world will be a better place for it, and so will we. The mystery has been unraveled, the journey complete, but the exploration of our own understanding never truly ends. Let's keep questioning, keep exploring, and keep growing, one thought at a time.