Potential is a multiplier but consistency is an exponent.

Let’s pretend that you can objectively measure your amount of Skill Level in an area of your life, or overall, and you can compare this number to your number in the past and make projections about it out into the future. 

Now on top of that, I’m going to pretend that the equation above gives you this numerical measure of your Skill Level. To better understand the equation, let’s first understand the parts themselves:

1. The first part, Good, can best be understood as your initial skill level; it is your starting combination of natural advantages, previous experience, and current ability. This is the part that gets all the publicity and hype and you would think that it’s the most important part of the equation but in reality it actually ends up being the least important number. You can’t grow taller or change the past so this is the only part of the Skill Level equation that you can’t change, so let’s just not worry about this number since we don’t have control over it. [And yes, some people can in this pretend case be multitudes bigger on their Good number, just look at a 6’6” prospect vs. a 5’6” prospect – the 5’6” prospect has much more potential as a jockey!]

2. The true most important number is the Better number, or the rate of improvement as a decimal, and the most important aspect of it is that it HAS TO BE a positive number. Whether you’re 1% better or half of 1% better than you were yesterday, as long as your Better number is positive day after day, the base number will be greater than one and the Skill Level will continue to grow. So the first part of being good at growing your skills is focusing on being better today than you were yesterday, and being better tomorrow than today.

3. The last part of the Skill Level equation (the Best number exponent being the number of times repeated) is the boring part but it’s where the real *math magic* happens. The reason I called it boring is because it only requires one thing: show up and continue to work at it, and that can get boring from time to time. Some days you won’t want to get up and work on growing your Skill Level but if you want true transformative growth, the second rule of being good at growing your skills is that you need to show up and work every single day.

For a simple example, take someone who starts as a 8 level prospect that doesn’t work to get better each day vs. someone that is a 4 level prospect but works consistently to get 1% better each day. After 100 days, the 8-prospect is still at an 8 overall since 8*(1.00)^(100) = 8, but the 4-prospect has now surpassed the 8-prospect since 4*(1.01)^(100) = 10.8. If the 8-prospect worked as hard as a 4-prospect for the 100 days, they’d be at a 21.6 instead of an 8!

That’s it – show up ready to work, make sure you leave better than you arrived, and repeat that day after day. Don’t worry about what people say about how good you could be or not be, just show up and get better. 

Potential is a multiplier but consistency is an exponent.

Over 3 years ago I started voice dumping a half-baked and formed idea into Google Drive and then asking GPT 3/4/5 to turn it into a blog post. Even though a lot of them turned out to be AI slop writing, I still find value in revisiting them from time to time. So with the new 5.6 Sol model, I decided to revise an earlier version of an idea that Goodhart's Law of "when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure," is often applied to success with a correlation does not equal causation mistake. 

[The following is a GPT 5.6 Sol revision of a GPT 4 post from August 2023]

A successful CEO wakes up at 5:00 every morning.

An aspiring entrepreneur hears this and sets the same alarm. The logic seems simple: successful people wake up early, so waking up early must help create success.

Maybe it does. The extra time could be used to exercise, plan, read, or work without interruption. But the CEO might also wake early because of young children, anxiety, a demanding schedule, or a natural preference for mornings.

Waking up early may be correlated with success without causing it.

That is the familiar warning that correlation does not equal causation. But something more interesting happens when we turn the correlation into a goal.

Once waking early becomes a visible marker of ambition, people begin optimizing for the marker. They post screenshots of their alarms, promote elaborate morning routines, and treat exhaustion as evidence of discipline.

The signal of success becomes the strategy for achieving it.

This is where correlation meets Goodhart’s Law:

When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.

Consider a school judged almost entirely by test scores. The scores may begin as useful measures of learning. But once they become the main target, the system adapts.

Teachers narrow the curriculum. Schools devote more time to test preparation. Resources shift toward students closest to passing. In extreme cases, results are manipulated.

The score still exists, but it no longer measures learning in the same way. Targeting the measure changes what the measure represents.

The same thing happens when we imitate successful people.

We notice behaviors associated with desirable outcomes:

• Executives wake up early.

• Writers read constantly.

• Entrepreneurs take risks.

• Productive people follow strict routines.

• Happy people exercise or meditate.

We then assume that copying the visible behavior will reproduce the result.

But we may be copying a signal rather than a cause.

Take the advice to “take more risks.” Successful founders often did. But we mostly hear from the founders whose risks worked. Those who took similar risks and failed are less likely to write books or appear on podcasts.

The outcome may also depend on timing, skill, relationships, financial security, market conditions, experience, and luck.

Copying the risk without recreating those conditions is not copying the strategy. It is copying one visible part of a much larger system.

Celebrity diets work the same way. The public sees the meal plan. It may not see the trainer, chef, flexible schedule, medical supervision, genetics, or hours of exercise.

The easiest variable to observe becomes the easiest one to target.

This suggests a broader version of Goodhart’s Law:

When a correlate of success becomes a prescription for success, it becomes less likely to produce the success it once predicted.

As more people optimize for the signal, the signal becomes less meaningful.

Waking up at 5:00 may once have suggested discipline and purpose. Once everyone adopts the habit because successful people do it, waking early tells us much less. It may reflect discipline, or it may reflect imitation and sleep deprivation.

When learning from successful people, we often copy their practices when we should search for their principles.

The practice might be waking early. The principle may be protecting uninterrupted time.

The practice might be reading fifty books a year. The principle may be continuously improving your understanding.

The practice might be taking large risks. The principle may be accepting uncertainty when the potential upside justifies it.

Practices are visible and easy to imitate. Principles require interpretation. They force us to ask why something worked and whether the same conditions apply to us.

Much of modern self-improvement consists of dressing ourselves in the habits of successful people. We copy their schedules, diets, reading lists, software, clothes, and workspaces because doing so makes us feel closer to their results.

But success is not a costume.

Visible habits are often the surface expression of deeper qualities: judgment, persistence, skill, relationships, opportunity, and accumulated knowledge. Habits may support those qualities, but they cannot automatically create them.

Do not ask only:

What do successful people do?

Ask:

Why did it work for them, and what would have to be true for it to work for me?

Otherwise, we may spend our lives optimizing the signals of success while moving no closer to its causes.

[The following is an output from GPT-4.5 when I asked it to give a 623 word blog post from a 4-minute ramble I had while walking]

Every person experiences moments when they feel or act differently depending on the situation, environment, or people around them. These changes in personality are natural responses to our surroundings. Imagine being excited around close friends, shy around strangers, confident when discussing your favorite subject, or nervous speaking in front of a large group. Such variations are common, as different situations bring out different aspects of our personalities. Yet, what makes us unique is how we combine these varying behaviors into a single, cohesive self.

Consider how you might behave differently depending on circumstances. Relaxing on the beach during vacation, you might feel carefree and playful. However, standing before a large audience to speak could evoke anxiety or excitement. Weather and environment also play roles—rainy days might make you quiet and reflective, while sunny days might make you feel lively and sociable. Despite these shifts, you still recognize yourself as the same person experiencing these different scenarios.

Our relationships significantly impact our personalities as well. Different people naturally influence us in various ways. For instance, certain friends might excite you, making you feel outgoing and energetic. Others might calm you down, making you thoughtful and relaxed. Conversely, some individuals might frustrate or agitate you, causing reactions you find difficult to control. Each relationship brings out specific sides of your personality.

These daily shifts in personality are normal and usually seamless. However, what happens when someone struggles to integrate these diverse traits into one coherent identity? Typically, we remain aware of our changing behaviors and know that we’re still the same person underneath. We can reflect and understand why we react differently in various situations. But occasionally, this integration becomes challenging.

Imagine being unable to reconcile these different behaviors and feelings. You might feel disconnected, as if each response belongs to a separate part of yourself. This can happen under extreme stress or trauma. During such times, our minds might struggle to unify our reactions into a cohesive sense of self. The coherence we usually maintain can break down, causing us to feel fragmented and confused about who we are.

This difficulty highlights how important self-awareness is in managing our various responses and behaviors. Understanding that our reactions are context-dependent helps us form a complete picture of ourselves. For instance, acknowledging that you feel shy around strangers but outgoing with friends helps you navigate social interactions better. Recognizing these patterns allows us to integrate our behaviors effectively.

Ultimately, we all contain a multitude of personalities influenced by different settings and relationships. The challenge is ensuring these personalities remain connected and unified. Imagine if every version of yourself—happy, anxious, confident, shy—worked independently without connection. Life would become confusing and overwhelming.

The key to a healthy self-identity is bringing together these diverse personality traits into one coherent self. When we do this successfully, we feel balanced and grounded. We can comfortably adapt to changing circumstances while maintaining a consistent understanding of who we are.

Everyday examples of this integration are easy to spot. A student might feel nervous about giving a class presentation yet remain confident when playing sports. They recognize these contrasting feelings as parts of a single identity. Another example is someone who is outgoing with friends yet reserved with family members. They understand these differences as normal adaptations rather than separate identities.

Ultimately, personality is flexible and complex, shaped by countless factors including environment, relationships, and situations. Successfully integrating these variations into one self-aware identity allows us to function effectively and remain emotionally stable. Recognizing and accepting these natural shifts in our behaviors is crucial in understanding ourselves and maintaining a cohesive, healthy identity.

For the 6th time in the past 11 years (previously 2024, 2023, 2022, 2019, and 2014), above is the NFL Draft Visit list from Walter Football organized by team and position. 

The numbers shaded in blue are conditionally formatted to show what position the team is concentrating on compared to other positions for that team, those shaded in red are formatted to show what position each team is focusing on compared to other teams in the NFL.

This year I kept the same draft visit points system as last year:

• Visits worth 1 point = visits where the teams were already there and just talked to a player = Senior Bowl visit, NFL Combine visit, virtual visit
• Visits worth 2 points = visits where the team sought out the player, but in a group setting = Pro Day visit, Local visits (players that grew up or went to college in the area)
• Visits worth 3 points = individual visits where the player was brought in or worked out, often the most important = Private visits (teams have 30 of these to use), Workout visits

What's shown in the picture is the proportion of each NFL team's draft visit "resources" (or total points) were used for each position.

Link: Spreadsheet with data

[The following is an output from GPT-4.5 when asked to give a 600 word blog post from a 2 minute ramble I had while making my lunch for the day]

Have you ever noticed how placing something important where you'll easily see it can make it more likely you'll actually do it? Imagine putting your gym shoes next to your bed if you want to start running each morning. Or leaving a bill right next to your keys so you don’t forget to pay it. This simple action—placing reminders or tasks in convenient locations—is a lot like how potential energy works in physics.

Potential energy is energy that's stored up, waiting to be released. Think of a ball at the top of a hill. While it sits there, the ball has stored-up energy simply because of its position. As soon as it starts rolling downhill, that potential energy transforms into kinetic energy, or energy in motion. The higher or more convenient the starting point, the more energy it has when it moves.

In our daily lives, tasks and reminders work in a similar way. When we place important reminders or objects in convenient spots, we essentially boost their "potential energy." For example, imagine you have to return a library book. If you leave it by your front door, you'll likely remember to grab it on your way out. Here, placing the book by the door increases its "potential energy." When you pick it up and actually return it, that stored-up energy becomes action—much like potential energy becoming kinetic.

On the other hand, if you leave the same library book buried beneath a pile of papers in your office, its potential energy is low. It's harder to remember, and less convenient, so you're less likely to act on it. As a result, its "kinetic energy"—your likelihood of actually returning it—is much lower.

Digital reminders work the same way. If you need to pay a bill or call a friend, you might set a reminder on your phone for a specific time when you know you'll be free. This reminder waiting quietly in your phone is storing up "potential energy." When the reminder pops up at the right moment, it easily converts to action, becoming your personal kinetic energy as you take care of the task.

Another good example is meal prepping. Let's say you want to eat healthier during the week. By preparing meals ahead of time and storing them in clear containers at eye level in your fridge, you boost the potential energy of healthy eating. You're far more likely to grab those nutritious meals instead of less healthy, less convenient options. The stored energy (the prepared meal waiting to be eaten) is easily turned into action (eating healthy).

The concept applies to nearly everything we do. Want to remember to read before bed? Leave a book on your pillow. Need to remember to take medication? Put the pills next to your toothbrush. Each of these small actions increases the potential energy of the task by making it conveniently visible and accessible.

This analogy helps us understand that convenience itself acts as a form of potential energy. The more convenient and visible you make important tasks, the higher their stored "potential energy," and the more likely you'll be to actually do them. By thoughtfully arranging our spaces and reminders, we can effortlessly transform potential energy (reminders or tasks waiting quietly) into kinetic energy (actions taken).

So next time you have something important to do, think of it like placing a ball at the top of a hill. Choose a convenient, visible spot, and watch how easily potential energy becomes positive action.