[The following was copied and pasted from GPT-4 after I fed it a transcript of a 3 minute ramble I had recorded while walking just now and asked it to turn it into a 700 word blog in the style of Morgan Housel]

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In a world brimming with possibilities, we often hear the inspirational refrain - "You can do anything!" We're told that we're unique, and if we truly commit ourselves, we can achieve anything. It's a wonderful sentiment, grounded in truth, and it fuels our ambition to strive for greatness. Yet, in our quest for personal growth, it's equally crucial to have a keen understanding of reality, particularly regarding our situational contexts. 

There is a concept in statistics called the 'base rate.' Simply put, it refers to the likelihood of an event occurring in a given population. For example, if we're looking at the success rate of start-ups, the base rate might tell us that a certain percentage of new businesses will still be operational after five years. This rate offers an 'average' or 'median' outcome, offering a glimpse into what tends to happen under usual circumstances.

Applying base rate thinking to our lives serves as a reality check. It reminds us that while we might feel special and capable of extraordinary things – and we very well could be – we are not immune to the statistical realities that apply to individuals in similar situations. 

Now, don't get me wrong. I'm not suggesting that we diminish our aspirations or see ourselves as just another number in a vast sea of statistics. On the contrary, understanding the base rate of a particular situation can guide us in our decision-making process and help us make informed choices.

Consider Bayes' theorem, a principle in probability theory and statistics, which suggests that we should adjust our expectations based on new information. In essence, it nudges us to change our mind when the situation changes. If we only think deterministically – believing in fixed outcomes – we are at odds with our inherently probabilistic world, where outcomes are not set in stone but rather influenced by a myriad of variables.

Many situations in life reflect the pattern of a bell curve, a normal distribution where most outcomes cluster around the average. But others, especially in realms like wealth or viral popularity, follow a power-law distribution where a small number of cases account for the majority of the effect. Knowing where we are on these distributions can aid in setting realistic expectations.

Understanding base rates and adjusting our assumptions based on changing circumstances enables us to navigate life with a more grounded perspective. It's about embracing the fact that while we are unique, we are also part of a larger statistical reality. We are special, yes, but so is everyone else, each in their own unique way. Recognizing this interplay between individual uniqueness and collective statistics is not a deterrent to our aspirations but a compass that guides our journey.

Ultimately, the key lies in striking a balance between our individual potential and the wisdom gained from the experiences of those who have walked paths similar to ours. It involves recognizing our potential, understanding the statistical realities of our situation, and being open to changing course when new information warrants it. 

This balance, this marriage of individual potential and statistical reality, can be our most reliable guide. It whispers to us that while we are indeed capable of anything, we must also remain grounded in the understanding that others have been in our shoes before, and there is much we can learn from their experiences. Remember, the world is vast, the possibilities are endless, but an understanding of base rates can be our trusty compass on this exciting journey called life.

[The following was copied and pasted from GPT-4 after I fed it a transcript of a 3 minute ramble I had recorded while walking just now and asked it to turn it into a 700 word blog in the style of Morgan Housel]

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It's been a recurring observation on Twitter, one that captures my attention - a shared consensus that those drawn to electronic music are a unique breed. I've found myself fascinated by this notion, circling around it, and teasing out the threads that form this intriguing tapestry of personality and music.

Electronic music, by its nature, can be challenging to the uninitiated. It thrums with repetitive beats and vocals, looping over in a rhythmic hypnotism that often requires patience and an appreciation of subtlety to fully savor. Songs can take their sweet time, unfurling over several minutes, before the compelling crescendo hooks you.

What sets apart electronic music lovers is their willingness to embrace the journey. This musical genre is not about instant gratification or a quick hit of a catchy hook. It's about the slow build-up, the ebb and flow of music that ultimately pulls you in. It's a long-term commitment, a relationship with a song that only deepens with each listening.

These enthusiasts have a propensity to appreciate layers - both in music and life. An electronic music track is much like an intricate mosaic, every beat and rhythm representing a unique piece. Together, they weave an auditory landscape rich in depth and texture. The fans of this genre are adept at identifying these layers, delighting in their complexity, and savoring the way they blend seamlessly to create a cohesive whole. This appreciation extends beyond music and seeps into their daily lives, enabling them to perceive nuances and complexities where others see only the surface.

The allure of electronic music, I believe, has much to do with its rhythm – a resonant frequency that seems to connect with its audience on a primal level. Every beat, every note strikes a chord, producing a euphoric roller-coaster of emotions that resonates with its listeners. It's about finding the right 'vibe,' that unique blend of beats per minute and the melody that seems to strike a chord within the listener's soul.

Interestingly, there seems to be a high tolerance for dissonance among electronic music lovers. They are prepared to weather the occasional rough patch in a song, the 'bad parts,' with stoicism, almost as if the discord adds to the overall experience. It is as though they are aware that one needs to wade through the unremarkable to truly appreciate the extraordinary - a mindset that suggests a long-term vision and an acceptance of life's inevitable ups and downs.

It makes me think of the famed 'marshmallow test,' a psychological experiment gauging gratification delay. Given the choice between an immediate reward or a greater reward after a delay, those who prefer electronic music, I suspect, would be more inclined to hold out for the bigger prize. Their music preference, with its emphasis on the build-up and journey, suggests a temperament more inclined towards patience and a focus on long-term gratification.

In conclusion, a penchant for electronic music might indicate more than just a musical preference. It may be a reflection of a certain mindset, an inclination towards seeing the bigger picture, appreciating life's intricate layers, and a propensity for delayed gratification. They're the ones who relish the journey as much as, if not more than, the destination.

Could a love for electronic music denote a particular kind of thinker? Could it serve as a telltale marker of a long-term visionary who savors life's complexities? While we cannot generalize, the connection is indeed fascinating, offering a unique perspective on how music preferences can mirror life philosophies. So, the next time the pulsating beats of an electronic track fill the room, take a moment to appreciate the journey it represents, the layers it unveils, and the resilience it inspires.

Similar to this post from a couple years ago, recently I used Gephi to create a network diagram of all the skills that an Algebra 2 student would gain over the course of the year. It didn't turn out as good as I hoped, but I still think it's cool to look at and digest.

• The size of the nodes (the skills, ex. Order of Operations) is based on the concept of betweenness centrality, a concept that Google's Generative Search summarizes as "Betweenness centrality quantifies how many times a particular node comes in the shortest chosen path between two other nodes" which to me means how vital or important it is. 
• The position or centrality (how central it is) of the node is also a measure of importance, based on Gephi's Force Atlas 2 algorithim, which Generative Search summarizes as, "Force Atlas 2 is a force-directed layout that simulates a physical system to spatialize a network. Nodes repulse each other like charged particles, while edges attract their nodes, like springs. These forces create a movement that converges to a balanced state", which again to me means that it algo-balances it and finds the best shape somehow.
• I honestly don't remember what the size of the edges (the connection between skills, that are in the same month) means.

The process I used was:

1. Asked GPT-4 what topics it thought were most important that a student would learn in Algebra 2
2. Asked it to break that list of topics into 8 different months worth of curriculum
3. Asked it for 10 problems per month that an exemplar student would be able to solve
4. Then asked it to list the skills needed to solve all of those problems, in order of how you'd learn them (earliest skill first, most recent last)
5. Within each month, I created an edge for each skill paired with each other skill in that month. This created 525 edges (or connections, or times both skills needed to be known to learn that month's content) between the 50 nodes (skills)
6. Used this tutorial again because I forgot what to do next

Here's the table of nodes (skills) a student should know by the end of Algebra 2:

*from the view of an old man (Millennial)

[The following was copied and pasted from GPT-4 after I fed it a transcript of a 3 minute ramble I had recorded while walking just now and asked it to turn it into a 1000 word blog in the style of Morgan Housel]

Title: The Unfiltered Lens: Observing the Authenticity of Gen Z

In my journey as an educator and observer of life, I've always aimed to see reality as it is - an objective observer. Over the past seven or eight years, my focus has been on teenagers, ranging from ages 13 to 18. Since I began working with this demographic in 2015, I've followed the transition of my oldest students, then 18 and now 24, and my youngest, then 14 and now 16. This wide spectrum of young minds, encompassing the entirety of Generation Z, has offered me a unique vantage point to observe and analyze.

Lately, society is intrigued by Gen Z, attempting to dissect their trends, their sense of humor, their style, their divergence from millennials and baby boomers. From the recurring cycle of fashion trends to the apparent openness of their personal lives, a lot is being discussed. However, amid this curiosity and analysis, I've noted a pervasive theme, a defining trait that encapsulates Gen Z in its entirety - Authenticity.

Let's begin by acknowledging that, indeed, Gen Z is significantly more open about their personal lives. They document everything, making their everyday lives an open book. For instance, I've observed that many have taken to the new Apple journal app on iOS 17, an AI-fueled reflective journal built right into their phones. This propensity to record their thoughts, to self-reflect, reflects a fundamental shift in their relationship with their inner selves. This generation isn't just capturing moments, they're capturing thoughts and emotions - a profound testimony to their authenticity.

But what about their trends, their styles? There's a common perception that Gen Z seems to be hopping on every new trend, mimicking dance routines, and appropriating fashion styles from past generations. Yet, there's more to this than meets the eye. What may appear as blind trend-following is, in essence, a form of personal expression. They're adding their unique twists to existing trends, amalgamating styles from various eras to create something truly their own. The apparent replication is, in reality, a form of reinvention, underscoring their authentic selves.

The authenticity of Gen Z extends into the realm of social media too. It's a widely accepted notion that social media tends to cultivate a culture of pretense. However, I believe that Gen Z is challenging this norm. Despite the inevitable tendency to project an idealized self-image, I've observed that Gen Z manages to maintain a level of genuineness in their online interactions. They're presenting more of their true selves in the digital world, reminiscent of Kevin Kelly's assertion that one should strive to become their true self.

I am not suggesting that Gen Z is immune to the lure of projection or pretense, but rather, they've begun their journey towards self-expression and authenticity from a higher starting point compared to previous generations. Their natural disposition towards authenticity, their desire to maintain a genuine self-image, reflects a significant cultural shift in our society.

So, where does this leave us, the observers, the educators, the parents, and the well-wishers of Gen Z? It's simple. We need to embrace authenticity. We don't have to imitate their trends or mirror their styles, but merely present our genuine selves. Gen Z, in my experience, values and respects authenticity more than anything else. Trying to 'fit in' with them is futile; what matters is being genuine, being ourselves. 

In a world where authenticity often takes a backseat to projection, Gen Z is defying norms, steering the narrative towards individuality and genuineness. Their pursuit of authenticity, their commitment to self-expression, offers us a profound lesson - to cherish our individuality and celebrate authenticity in all its forms. They remind us to remain true to ourselves, regardless of prevailing trends or societal pressures.

Take a step back from the intricacies of their trends, their humor, or their online persona, and one will notice a collective drive towards authenticity that defines Gen Z. They reject the homogenization of thought and expression, embracing individuality with open arms. This is apparent not only in their consumption of culture but also in the content they create - from TikTok videos to Instagram stories. Everything carries a touch of their authentic selves.

Authenticity, for Gen Z, isn't a strategic choice; it's an integral part of their identity. They're not afraid to express their authentic selves, be it through their digital footprint or their real-world interactions. Unlike previous generations who were often pressured into conforming to societal norms, Gen Z is more comfortable stepping outside the conformity box, laying their uniqueness bare for all to see. This is a generation that doesn't shy away from wearing their hearts on their sleeves.

Their inclination towards authenticity is also evident in their approach to problem-solving and decision-making. They reject superficial solutions and tend to look deeper, seeking authentic understanding over shallow knowledge. They don't just want to know 'what,' they want to understand 'why.' Their quest for authenticity extends beyond mere personal expression to the way they interact with the world around them.

To wrap up my observation of this compelling generation, it's worth noting that the authenticity they embody is not merely about 'being different.' Instead, it's about 'being oneself' - free from pretense, unapologetically original. This is the cornerstone of their identity, the foundation upon which they're building their futures.

As we watch, learn, and occasionally marvel at Gen Z, we would do well to remember that authenticity isn't just their characteristic; it's their clarion call. They're imploring us to embrace our authentic selves, to celebrate our unique identities, and above all, to cherish the unvarnished truth of who we are. In the end, our greatest homage to this intriguing generation might not be to understand them fully but to learn from their journey towards authenticity and walk our paths with the same unyielding commitment to being true to ourselves. As we do so, we'll undoubtedly find that authenticity isn't just a trend, but a timeless virtue that transcends generations and redefines society. 

So, the next time you find yourself perplexed by a Gen Z trend, remember that it's less about the trend itself and more about what it represents - a commitment to authenticity. They're not just 'Generation Z,' they're 'Generation Authenticity,' and that's a characteristic we can all aspire to emulate. After all, in the grand theater of life, it's authenticity that makes the performance memorable, genuine, and truly human.

[The following was copied and pasted from GPT-4 after I fed it a transcript of a 3 minute ramble I had recorded while walking just now and asked it to turn it into a 500 word blog in the style of Morgan Housel]

Title: Decoding Quality: The Consistency-Truth Paradox

To comprehend the essence of quality, a profound understanding of what constitutes 'truth' and 'equality' is required. Unraveling this relationship, I'm compelled to believe that one of the most compelling analogies to bring into play here is that 'consistency equals truth.' 

Visualize a simple pencil. You hold it up and let it go; gravity immediately pulls it down. This universal force is a truth, consistently proven by its unyielding manifestation, no matter the number of times the pencil is dropped. Instances that appear to defy this consistency - wind tunnels, zero-gravity flights, or spacewalks - can momentarily shake our belief system. Yet, these instances seem surreal precisely because they contradict our inherent understanding that consistency equals truth.

The same principle applies to emotions and human relationships. If you harbor genuine love for your partner, it manifests consistently. It endures through trials and triumphs, a daily testament of your feelings. An inconsistent demonstration of love often signals a lack of genuineness, offering a tangible realization that inconsistency is the inverse of consistency, just as untruths are the inverse of truth. 

The intriguing mathematics of it all dictate that if something is equal, its opposites must also be equal. Thus, if consistency equals truth, it follows that inconsistency must equate to untruths or lies.

This idea can offer invaluable insights within the professional domain. I recall a valuable lesson from a previous boss on this matter. Inconsistent performance can be far more disruptive than consistently poor performance. It's not necessarily the lack of ability that irks employers but the inconsistency, the unexpected variations in outcomes. 

It isn't the magnitude of the lie that generates reactions; it's the shattered consistency, the sudden dissonance in the harmony of belief and truth. An inconsistency, a deviation from the expected, is perceived as a lie, sparking a profound sense of betrayal. 

This extends to personal ambitions as well. If you're genuinely curious about the world, your pursuit of knowledge will remain steadfast. If you passionately aspire to be a doctor, you'll weather the storm of rigorous training and demanding qualifications. In short, if something rings true for you, your dedication towards it will endure, underscoring that consistency is a testament of truth.

It is hence crucial to recognize that consistency and truth are intertwined. If something matters to you genuinely, it will reflect in your actions persistently. If a belief, a value, or an aspiration holds true for you, your pursuit will echo that truth with unerring consistency. 

On the flip side, when inconsistencies mar this pursuit, they tend to signal a departure from the truth, leading to potential deceptions or lies. So, let the constancy of your actions, your persistent pursuit of what matters to you, be the barometer of your truth. 

Consistency is not merely a measure of dedication or persistence. It's a powerful compass guiding us towards our truths, helping us weave our narratives in the tapestry of life.