"Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity" - Seneca
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity" - Seneca
So I quickly compared how my simple prediction fared against the 2014 mocks I collected and I will add the comparison numbers and rankings onto this post later today. But I think it turned out pretty well, I believe by comparing the predicted and mocked picks to the actual selection order, I had an R-square value of 0.57 and the highest mock I looked at was Mayock's who had a R-square of 0.55.
What I find particularly impressive about this prediction is how simple it was -- all it looked at was a Top 100 composite ranking, height, weight, arm length and average mock draft position. It outperformed all the expert's mock accuracy and I didn't spend months working on it and I had no inside knowledge, I just aggregated what others were hearing and thought.
To review, my selection prediction for the 2013 Draft had a R-square value of 0.61 and the next highest was Todd McShay at 0.5. My selection prediction for the 2014 Draft had a R-square value of 0.57 and the next highest of the ones I looked at was Mike Mayock at 0.55. I could have looked at more mocks to be more comprehensive, some mocks might have performed higher than those that were looked at but if they were included in the dataset, the prediction would have improved as well.
Below is the predicted order based off of the following variables:
| Top 100 consensus ranking |
| Height |
| Weight |
| Arm Length |
| Avg Mock Draft Points |
| Order | Player | Pos | Top100 | Height | Weight | Arms | Avg Mock Draft points | Pred Mock Draft Points |
| 1 | Jadeveon Clowney | DE | 1 | 77 | 266 | 35 | 2911.111111 | 2656.180654 |
| 2 | Greg Robinson | OT | 3 | 77 | 332 | 35 | 2600 | 2414.823449 |
| 3 | Khalil Mack | OLB | 2 | 75 | 251 | 33 | 2188.888889 | 1990.70493 |
| 4 | Sammy Watkins | WR | 4 | 73 | 211 | 32 | 1833.333333 | 1646.896388 |
| 5 | Taylor Lewan | OT | 10 | 79 | 309 | 34 | 1494.444444 | 1581.072755 |
| 6 | Mike Evans | WR | 6 | 77 | 231 | 35 | 1450 | 1566.586301 |
| 7 | Jake Matthews | OT | 5 | 77 | 308 | 33 | 1572.222222 | 1558.98738 |
| 8 | Johnny Manziel | QB | 11 | 72 | 207 | 31 | 1572.222222 | 1386.016481 |
| 9 | Anthony Barr | OLB | 13 | 77 | 255 | 34 | 1094.444444 | 1250.329576 |
| 10 | Eric Ebron | TE | 12 | 76 | 250 | 33 | 1175 | 1247.941459 |
| 11 | Aaron Donald | DT | 8 | 73 | 285 | 33 | 1215.555556 | 1219.553732 |
| 12 | Zack Martin | OT | 15 | 76 | 308 | 33 | 1144.444444 | 1216.86755 |
| 13 | Justin Gilbert | CB | 16 | 72 | 202 | 33 | 1188.888889 | 1188.137736 |
| 14 | Blake Bortles | QB | 14 | 77 | 232 | 33 | 1044.444444 | 1170.458139 |
| 15 | Cyrus Kouandjio | OT | 34 | 79 | 322 | 36 | 797 | 1139.066329 |
| 16 | C.J. Mosley | ILB | 9 | 74 | 234 | 33 | 1058.333333 | 1126.560729 |
| 17 | Odell Beckham Jr. | WR | 18 | 71 | 198 | 33 | 1022.222222 | 1044.672079 |
| 18 | Ha Ha Clinton-Dix | FS | 18 | 73 | 208 | 32 | 990 | 1011.699527 |
| 19 | Kyle Fuller | CB | 27 | 72 | 190 | 33 | 950 | 1006.921183 |
| 20 | Morgan Moses | OT | 36 | 78 | 314 | 35 | 695.8333333 | 1000.100097 |
| 21 | Timmy Jernigan | DT | 30 | 74 | 299 | 32 | 925 | 966.0854087 |
| 22 | Ja'Wuan James | OT | 57 | 78 | 311 | 35 | 660 | 965.7691372 |
| 23 | Ra'Shede Hageman | DT | 24 | 78 | 310 | 34 | 640 | 918.4423979 |
| 24 | Jimmie Ward | SS | 35 | 71 | 193 | 31 | 950 | 895.0107152 |
| 25 | Calvin Pryor | FS | 22 | 71 | 207 | 31 | 927.7777778 | 881.5884295 |
| 26 | Jace Amaro | TE | 39 | 77 | 265 | 34 | 606.6666667 | 874.7488037 |
| 27 | Darqueze Dennard | CB | 19 | 71 | 199 | 30 | 975.5555556 | 874.4638941 |
| 28 | Kony Ealy | DE | 26 | 76 | 273 | 34 | 620 | 869.9957469 |
| 29 | Joel Bitonio | OT | 46 | 76 | 302 | 34 | 597.5 | 842.0860553 |
| 30 | Ryan Shazier | OLB | 21 | 73 | 237 | 32 | 766.1111111 | 839.6863546 |
| 31 | Derek Carr | QB | 33 | 74 | 214 | 32 | 743.3333333 | 839.5957556 |
| 32 | Dee Ford | DE | 31 | 74 | 252 | 33 | 680 | 833.3038955 |
Although analyzing the relationships between variables of NFL draft prospects was actually very interesting and I could've continued digging deeper forever, ultimately I needed to actually move on and try to create a prediction formula for the draft selections.
My first attempts were to try to predict the aforementioned draft value of each prospect given their physical measurements, top 100 ranking composite score, aggregated mock draft scores and how many visits they made. It actually did pretty well in terms of accuracy I mentioned in my earlier post comparing the NFL pundit predictions. I do want to reiterate that I graded them on pick selection accuracy, not team based accuracy, so it is more of a reflection of what pick number the prospect should be than where they should go. It's just a quick way to make a general suggestion of what should happen.
Before I looked pundits' predicted vs. actual JJ Draft Value plots and ranked them by the amount of the actual draft value an algorithm could predict given their previous mock drafts results. Here is the prediction formula's plot, it performed well at a R-square value of XXX. This would place it above the highest ranking expert I looked at, Todd McShay had a R-square value of 0.76. Not bad for someone who has no experience scouting and no inside NFL knowledge.
Anyways I graded the prediction formula against the pundits a little differently as well. This time instead of using JJ Draft Value as a metric, I'll use pick selection for the 2013 Draft. So I compared the prediction formula's projected pick to the expert's picks, here are the experts picks:
You can see that Mel Kiper did much better in 2013 than he has done in his career, but Todd McShay is still doing better. By the way I don't mean to pick on Mel or anything, he's just the most recognizable NFL Draft expert. Anyways, below are my picks versus the actual selections in the 2013 Draft:
What I think this shows is that if you use even a very basic prediction algorithm of what pick a prospect is going to be selected at, rather than trying to predict what team will select them, you can get a better sense of a prospect's draft value than even some of the experts in the field.
I would love to see people take ideas from this project and expand on the research, I'm sure it would be valuable to any NFL front office. I will post my data after the project is complete. In the next post, I will attempt to predict the 2014 draft order.
I deviated from the last topic I was going to dive into at the outset of the project. Instead of looking at the college statistics of each individual I thought it would be more prudent to study the overall rankings of each player. College stats wouldn't be the best predictors because they're heavily dependent on the scheme and caliber of teammates each prospect had, whereas overall rankings project them compared to other prospects at their respective positions. I think there will be some crossover effects with the mock draft rankings, but mock drafts project fit with teams and aren't true ordered rankings.
To create a composite style ranking similar to this one, I collected the top 100 rankings of 10 different draft pundits, averaged out their rankings to get a consensus and then ranked them. Below are the top 50 results from 2013, since my test draft prediction will be run on that draft.
Pundits used:
| DraftTek |
| Mike Mayock |
| NE Draft |
| Walter Football |
| Blogging the Boys |
| Gil Brandt |
| New Era Scouting |
| NFL Draft Scout |
| Matt Miller |
| Daniel Jeremiah |
| Player | College | Rank | Avg |
| Luke Joeckel | Texas A&M | 1 | 1.8 |
| Eric Fisher | Central Michigan | 2 | 3.1 |
| Dion Jordan | Oregon | 3 | 4.6 |
| Sharrif Floyd | Florida | 4 | 6.9 |
| Chance Warmack | Alabama | 5 | 7.2 |
| Star Lotulelei | Utah | 6 | 8.1 |
| Lane Johnson | Oklahoma | 7 | 8.8 |
| Dee Milliner | Alabama | 8 | 9.2 |
| Ezekiel Ansah | Brigham Young | 9 | 10.6 |
| Jonathan Cooper | North Carolina | 10 | 11.1 |
| Sheldon Richardson | Missouri | 11 | 11.2 |
| Tavon Austin | West Virginia | 12 | 13.22 |
| Barkevious Mingo | LSU | 13 | 13.8 |
| Kenny Vaccaro | Texas | 14 | 15 |
| Bjoern Werner | Florida State | 15 | 17.9 |
| Geno Smith | West Virginia | 16 | 19.4 |
| Jarvis Jones | Georgia | 17 | 20.8 |
| Tyler Eifert | Notre Dame | 18 | 21.2 |
| Xavier Rhodes | Florida State | 19 | 21.4 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | Tennessee | 20 | 21.4 |
| Sylvester Williams | North Carolina | 21 | 26.7 |
| Alec Ogletree | Georgia | 22 | 27.4 |
| D.J. Fluker | Alabama | 23 | 27.5 |
| Cornellius Carradine | Florida State | 24 | 28.7 |
| Desmond Trufant | Washington | 25 | 29.2 |
| Jonathan Cyprien | Florida Int'l | 26 | 30.9 |
| Keenan Allen | California | 27 | 31.7 |
| Datone Jones | UCLA | 28 | 32.2 |
| Manti Te'o | Notre Dame | 29 | 33.3 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | Clemson | 30 | 33.5 |
| Arthur Brown | Kansas State | 31 | 34.1 |
| Damontre Moore | Texas A&M | 32 | 36.9 |
| Eddie Lacy | Alabama | 33 | 37.11 |
| Matt Elam | Florida | 34 | 38.11 |
| Johnthan Banks | Mississippi State | 35 | 38.25 |
| Kevin Minter | LSU | 36 | 39.3 |
| Kawann Short | Purdue | 37 | 40.4 |
| D.J. Hayden | Houston | 38 | 40.9 |
| Jamar Taylor | Boise State | 39 | 42.1 |
| Robert Woods | USC | 40 | 42.3 |
| Matt Barkley | USC | 41 | 42.88 |
| Jesse Williams | Alabama | 42 | 43.2 |
| Eric Reid | LSU | 43 | 45.1 |
| Zach Ertz | Stanford | 44 | 45.5 |
| Menelik Watson | Florida State | 45 | 45.71 |
| Justin Hunter | Tennessee | 46 | 45.8 |
| Alex Okafor | Texas | 47 | 46.71 |
| Johnathan Hankins | Ohio State | 48 | 49.33 |
| Larry Warford | Kentucky | 49 | 51.22 |
| Kyle Long | Oregon | 50 | 51.44 |