Reviewing the Draft Order Prediction

So I quickly compared how my simple prediction fared against the 2014 mocks I collected and I will add the comparison numbers and rankings onto this post later today.  But I think it turned out pretty well, I believe by comparing the predicted and mocked picks to the actual selection order, I had an R-square value of 0.57 and the highest mock I looked at was Mayock's who had a R-square of 0.55.

What I find particularly impressive about this prediction is how simple it was -- all it looked at was a Top 100 composite ranking, height, weight, arm length and average mock draft position.  It  outperformed all the expert's mock accuracy and I didn't spend months working on it and I had no inside knowledge, I just aggregated what others were hearing and thought.

To review, my selection prediction for the 2013 Draft had a R-square value of 0.61 and the next highest was Todd McShay at 0.5.  My selection prediction for the 2014 Draft had a R-square value of 0.57 and the next highest of the ones I looked at was Mike Mayock at 0.55.  I could have looked at more mocks to be more comprehensive, some mocks might have performed higher than those that were looked at but if they were included in the dataset, the prediction would have improved as well.